By Marvin Moore September 15, 2023
All good things, and some bad stuff too, must come to an end. That’s what Trevor Lawrence & Co. will be counting on Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs visit Jacksonville, riding a seven-game winning streak against the Jaguars.
The odds will be stacked against Doug Pederson’s upstart squad. Patrick Mahomes is 4-0 against the Jaguars and 13-3 in his career after suffering a loss. Jacksonville has not beaten Kansas City in nearly 14 years. And the Chiefs are desperate to avoid becoming only the fifth defending Super Bowl champion to open the season with back-to-back losses.
The Jaguars stood toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in last year’s playoff before falling short by a touchdown. Lawrence threw for more yards than Mahomes, but Jacksonville had no answer for Travis Kelce. The NFL’s top tight end caught a whopping 14 balls for 98 yards and two touchdowns. Kelce was absent in the season opener with a hyperextended knee but will play this week.
But this is a different Jacksonville team. Lawrence has developed into a franchise quarterback. The addition of receiver Calvin Ridley has provided the offense with a big-time pass-catcher for the first time since Jimmy Smith retired. The Jaguars might not be able to slow down Mahomes. But the Chiefs might not be able to slow down Lawrence either.
The top overall pick in 2021, Lawrence is ready to take the leap as an elite NFL passer. He made gigantic strides in the playoffs last year in a game against the Los Angeles Chargers when he threw four interceptions. Instead of losing his confidence, Lawrence rallied the Jaguars from a 27-point deficit to pull off the improbable comeback.
The former Clemson standout finished last season with impressive numbers. He posted a 90.0 grade over the regular season’s final nine weeks, trailing only Mahomes and Joe Burrow. During that same stretch of games, Lawrence completed 67.70% of his passes with 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Not bad for a 23-year-old who posted 12 scoring passes and 17 picks the previous season.
The Jaguars have won nine of their last 12 games, including the playoffs. However, two of those losses were against the Chiefs. But Jacksonville did not have Ridley last season.
The former first-rounder tallied eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Ridley is an elusive playmaker with the speed to consistently beat one-on-one coverage. He caught 90 passes for 1,374 yards and nine scores in 2020 and earned second-team All-Pro honors.
Pulling off the upset won’t be a cakewalk. Kansas City has lost two consecutive games just three times since Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018. Besides the return of Kelce, defensive tackle Chris Jones will make his season debut after ending his holdout earlier this week.
But all eyes will be on Mahomes and Lawrence. The matchup has a projected total of 51.5 points, the highest-scoring game of the week. The oddsmakers are anticipating a shootout, and I concur.
No moment is too big for either gunslinger. Mahomes has an eye-popping 64-17 in 81 starts and has won 11 of 14 postseason games. Meanwhile, Lawrence is 9-3 in his last 12 starts and engineered the third-largest comeback in playoff history in his first postseason game. Wow!
It’s not wise to bet against Mahomes, and the Chiefs are in a must-win mode. But Sunday could be a coming-out party for Lawrence and a confident Jaguars squad. I like their chances.
