By Marvin Moore August 8, 2023
In the NFL preseason, all 32 teams envision competing for a division title and advancing to the playoffs. However, only a handful of teams have a realistic shot to finish at the top of their division.
Every season, a few Cinderella teams defy the odds and put together successful campaigns that earn them a playoff spot. This year, the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos seem poised to shock the oddsmakers and post double-digit victories.
Below are our picks to finish atop their divisions in 2023 and the teams that will claim a wild-card berth.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (13-4)*
New York Jets (11-6)**
Miami Dolphins (10-7)
New England Patriots (6-11)
The ultra-competitive AFC East will be a three-team race between the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins. Buffalo posted a 13-4 card last season but has won just four of nine playoff games under head coach Sean McDermott. Dual-threat playmaker Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the division, but future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers makes the Jets a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
New York has a ton of talent on both sides of the football but has an offensive line with many question marks. The Jets’ ability to keep Rodgers healthy will significantly affect the team’s success this season. Miami’s defense should take a big step forward this year, with Vic Fangio calling the shots. The Dolphins will be in the playoff hunt if quarterback Tua Tagovailoa can staff off the injured list.
New England should once again trot out a top-15 defensive unit but will struggle on offense with Mac Jones under center. The glory days of the Patriots are over, and 2023 could be Bill Belichick’s final season walking the sidelines at Gillette Stadium.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (11-6)*
Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)**
Cleveland Browns (10-7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9)
The Bengals have advanced to the AFC Championship game the past two seasons but will have difficulty
winning the division this year. Cincinnati has one of the league’s top quarterback-wide receiver tandems in Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. However, the Ravens are the team to beat in the AFC North this season.
A healthy and rejuvenated Lamar Jackson should again be in the MVP conversation with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken installing a modern passing game in Baltimore. The Ravens have assembled a stellar lineup of pass-catchers (Odell Beckham Jr., Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and rookie Zay Flowers) and have enough playmakers on defense to make a deep playoff run.
The Browns should also be much-improved this season, with quarterback Deshaun Watson regaining his Pro Bowl form. Nick Chubb remains one of the league’s top running backs, while new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will upgrade a defensive unit that features the pass-rushing duo of Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith. The Steelers will learn if second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett is a franchise signal-caller, but Pittsburgh does not have enough offensive firepower to compete for a playoff spot.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6)*
Tennessee Titans (8-9)
Houston Texans (6-11)
Indianapolis Colts (4-13)
The Jaguars should coast to another division title this season with little resistance. Head coach Doug Pederson was the perfect hire last year to aid in the development of franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville boasts an array of talented playmakers on offense and could become an elite squad if the defense takes another step forward in 2023.
The Titans, Texans, and Colts all drafted quarterbacks in this year’s NFL Draft. While both Houston and Indianapolis are expected to start rookie field generals, Ryan Tannehill will be the Week 1 starter for Tennessee. With a pair of rebuilding squads and a team still searching for its future quarterback, the road to the AFC South crown begins and ends in Jacksonville.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)*
Denver Broncos (10-7)**
Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)
The Chiefs are the favorites to capture their eighth consecutive division title but will face stiff competition from the Broncos and Chargers. Patrick Mahomes will again lean heavily on tight end Travis Kelce to overcome one of the league’s most unimpressive wide receiver corps. A suspect Kansas City defense should make the race for the AFC West title an exciting one.
Denver and its new head coach Sean Payton should quickly become a playoff contender this season. Former Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson will thrive in Payton’s system, and the Broncos’ defense has the potential to be a top-10 unit. The return of running back Javonte Williams and a solid cast of receivers bodes well for Denver’s postseason aspirations.
The Chargers have all the ingredients to field one of the NFL’s most explosive offensive units this season. Quarterback Justin Herbert and a talented group of receivers should have little problem lighting up scoreboards. Los Angeles also showcases a stout defense that should be even better this season. The Raiders are in disarray, and don’t be surprised if head coach Josh McDaniels is served his walking papers during the regular season.
AFC Playoffs
1. Bills 2. Chiefs 3. Ravens 4. Jaguars 5. Bengals 6. Jets 7. Broncos
Wild card round: Chiefs over Broncos, Ravens over Jets, Bengals over Jaguars
Divisional round: Bills over Bengals, Ravens over Chiefs
AFC Championship Game: Ravens over Bills
Note: * indicates division champion, ** indicates wild card team
